RUSSIAN VIEWS ON ELECTRONIC AND INFORMATION WARFARE MARY C. FITZGERALD HUDSON INSTITUTE 1015 18TH STREET, N.W. SUITE 300 WASHINGTON, D.C. 20036 PHN: 202-223-7770 FAX: 202-223-8537 SEPTEMBER 1997 FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY THESIS RUSSIAN MILITARY SCIENTISTS PREDICT THAT THE NEW RMA WILL DRIVE FUTURE WAR TOWARD EXPLOITATION OF NEW PHYSICAL PRINCIPLES, INFO WARFARE, A UNIFIED AIR-SPACE TVD, JOINT OPERATIONS, AND CENTRALIZED FORCE STRUCTURE. FUTURE WAR WILL LIBERATE MAN FROM THE BATTLEFIELD AND BE LESS PHYSICALLY DESTRUCTIVE BECAUSE ITS MAIN OBJECTIVES ARE TO AFFECT THE OPPONENT'S INFRASTRUCTURE AND PSYCHOLOGY. VICTORY WILL GO TO THE SIDE BEST ABLE TO EXECUTE THE EMERGING, "SIXTH GENERATION" OF WARFARE. OVERVIEW _NEW RMA/PROTOTYPE DESERT STORM DEFINE FUTURE WAR: NEW STRATEGY OF INFORMATION DOMINANCE _"NEW PHYSICAL PRINCIPLES" + "INFO WEAPONS" + SPACE = "SPACE-AGE WAR"/"TECHNICAL SUPERSYSTEMS" (RUKs) _"RECONNAISSANCE-STRIKE OPERATION" REQUIRES NEW BRANCHES, C2, INTEGRATED INFO MANAGEMENT, EDUCATION, TRAINING, ETC. _ NEW RMA REQUIRES NEW MILITARY-TECHNICAL POLICY: "TECHNOLOGICAL DETERRENCE"/"TIME- COST-EFFECTIVENESS" ORGANIZATION _ NATURE OF RMA _ LESSONS OF DESERT STORM _ NATURE OF FUTURE WAR _ NEW TECHNOLOGIES _ INFORMATION/ELECTRONIC WARFARE _ NEW SPACE TVD _ "RECONNAISSANCE-STRIKE SYSTEMS" _ NEW OPERATIONAL CONCEPTS _ NEW ORGANIZATIONAL ADAPTATIONS _ NEW MILITARY-TECHNICAL POLICY I. Introduction ? More realistic General Staff assessments ? More refined military science: RMA, RUKs, IW/Role of Space, Air Campaign ? U.S. superiority vs. Russian lags ? Why important? - U.S. needs long-term planning - Technical/operational countermeasures - Reliance on nuclear weapons - Other countries: doctrine, technologies, operational/ organizational adaptations III. RMA "Sixth-Generation Warfare" ? Centerpiece = superior data-processing ? Conventional offensive strategic arms, "non-traditional" weapons ? Greatly expanded C3I, EW, AD ? Space-based operations ? No occupation of territory ? Limited casualties and collateral damage ? Ascendancy of air-space (vertical) operations IV. RMA ? Definition ? MTR vs. RMA ? Continuous process with "leaps", no end, only new RMA - 8-10 years: PGMs, NPPs squeeze out nuclear weapons - 15-20 years: mass infusion of third- and fourth- generation nuclear weapons - 10-20 years: "space-age wars" ? First example = Desert Storm ? Next MTR = Composite Materials ? Next RMA = NPPs in space VI. RMA ? Key Trends - PGMs - Non-nuclear cruise, ballistic missiles - Directed-energy weapons - Non-lethal weapons - IW/EW systems - More powerful computers/transmitters - Fiber-optics communication systems ? Compact, mobile, high-tech military units II. Future War _ "Information War" _ "War of Weapons" - Air-, sea-, space-based - Unmanned, high-precision, low-signature, offensive _ Contest for info/electronic-fire supremacy with robotized weapons _ Massive surprise strike _ Selective destruction of economic base, military-economic potential III. Future War _ New Features - Protection against PGMs, incendiary, thermobaric weapons and technogenic, natural factors - Air supremacy = main objective of all forces, so joint training and centralized C2 - "Supersystems" = material, theoretical basis of war - "War of high technologies" = victory by information, automation systems IV. Future War _ "Military Futurology" - Military-scientific methodology - Philosophy - Logic - Mathematics - Military-engineering psychology - Cybernetics VI. Future War _ Academy of Military Sciences - Study threats - Recommend improved execution of missions - Develop scientific principles of military doctrine/reform - Organize principles of CIS collective defense - Strengthen scientific ties with CIS, other countries - Train specialists for armed forces, VPK II. PGMs ? "Strategic weapons" - Destroy military-industrial base, state infrastructure, communication/energy systems - Primarily strategic/stationary state, military targets/infrastructure - Isolate troop groupings, combat action areas - Tomahawks, AGM-142 Popeye, AGM-84E SLAM, ALARM, HARM systems VI. PGMs _ Countermeasures to PGMs - Suppress internal-external info exchange function - Mismatch detection info as PGM zeroes in on target - Localize, garble friendly info - Destroy, garble info stored in PGM software - Disable maneuver by modifying environment - Prohibit access/energy contact with target - Reduce PGM effectiveness - Kill all PGM group elements VIII. PGMs ? Countermeasures to Stealth - Radars: metric/decimetric wavebands, "resonance" long-wave, low-/multiple-frequency, early-warning aircraft, phased arrays - Passive: distort terrain map, ground jammers, absorbent coatings, radar reflectors, etc. - New EW, passive detection, position-finding systems; use of tactical indicators ? Basic method = dense, deeply echeloned AD with ground-, air-, space-based radars ? Once detected, Su-35 I. "New Physical Principles" ? Geophysical/ecological weapons ? High-frequency radio/electromagnetic wave weapons, infrasonic weapons ? Ethnic weapons ? Directed-energy weapons ? Psychotronic weapons ? Plasma weapons ? Non-lethal weapons ? Cost-effective ? Secrecy/surprise ? Little ammo/logistics IV. "New Physical Principles" ? High-frequency wave weapons (infrasonic weapons) -Attack all life-sustaining physiological functions (circulatory and nervous systems, internal organs, etc.) -Alarm, desperation, horror -Mass onset of epilepsy, heart attacks, death -Penetration of concrete, metal structures VII. "New Physical Principles" _ Psychotronic weapons = Technical devices based on energy from bio-field -Create "super-soldiers" with paranormal capabilities -Clairvoyance, telekinesis, etc. -Illnesses, death -Effect of bio-emissions on C3I, EW, arms -Silent, difficult to detect, few operators -Detect, monitor, protect against bio-emissions _ "In production" for 20 years _ Breakthrough = monopoly of nuclear weapons VIII. "New Physical Principles" _ Use of parapsychological phenomena, generators of psifields _ Mass altered states of consciousness - Local, global, special technological - "Economization" of warfare: non-lethal, "reversible" defeat _ Contributing factors = natural, antropogenic _ Initiating factors = psychedelic agents, low-power EMF, unconscious info/neurolinguistic programming through mass media _ Most dangerous for "stone-age"/highly developed countries IX. "New Physical Principles" _ Directed, non-contact EM fields in SHF/EHF bands - More dangerous than atomic, etc. - Suppress willpower/impose "criminal will" - Radio waves disrupt brain, central nervous systems - Infrasonic waves = fear, panic, etc. _ Directed irradiation = EM fields from electronic equipment - Changes behavior, reactions to events - Disrupts functional systems - Causes morphological changes in cell tissue - Penetrates brick, wood, concrete X. "New Physical Principles" _ "Biological Electronic Device" (BED) - "5th-generation computer" - "Artificial biological field generator" - "Bio-electronic transceiver" - "Electronic/SHF radiation sources" - "Holographic laser" _ Radiation generator, receiver, device to transform reflected signals _ BED lifts "biofield imprints" XII. "New Physical Principles" _ Non-lethal weapons - Laser weapons - Incoherent light sources - SHF weapons - Infrasonic weapons - Information weapons - EMP weapons _ Will become most common means for strategic missions _ High selectivity in opposing mobilization, destroying weapons/means of production, disabling state/military infrastructure XIII. "New Physical Principles" _ Non-lethal against personnel - Sound-/light-emitting, laser units - Sprays that act on physiology, psychology _ Non-lethal against equipment - EMP generators - Short-circuiters of power lines - Computer viruses - Corrosive substances - Quick-hardening, etc. substances I. Information Warfare ? "Struggle" vs. "Warfare" ? Space, early-warning, SIGINT systems ? Political, diplomatic measures ? Military deception/special operations ? Psychological operations/weapons ? C3I/EW = "jugular" ? Countermeasures - Active = EMP, computer virus, etc. - Passive = maskirovka, etc. II. Information Warfare ? Artintel = "pinnacle of technical progress" ? "Computer War" - "Mine" state/military systems with logic bombs, viruses - "Superiority in computers = superiority in armor" ? "Superiority in information weapons = superiority in RMA" (e.g., viruses, "zombifying") ? New strategy of INDIRECT APPROACH ? New, 4th RMA III. Information Warfare _ "Informatization" of Warfare - Electronic means - Automatization - Robotization - Intellectualization (PGMs) - Digitalization _ Shift to correlation of forces based on precision kills, virus implants - Viruses = force multiplier - Erase initial period - Add dimension to surprise IV. Information Warfare ? "Information War" - Objective = seize, maintain control over all resources via info resources - Initial period = mandatory struggle for info dominance - Modern formula = airwaves, air-space, land ? Victory = superiority in information - Disorganize info potential of AD, state/military C2 (reduce casualties by 60%) - Suppress military-economic potential - Ensure supremacy in political arena/raw materials markets V. Information Warfare _ "Program of Info Technology for Armed Forces" _ Development only in defense sector - Specialized chemicals - Laser technologies - Nuclear technologies - High-energy materials technologies _ Civilian lags in electronics, computer technologies _ Defense lags - Lower C2 information technologies - Incompatible hardware, software - Insufficient utility of info technologies, modeling, etc. VI. Information Warfare _ ASW and information technologies - Displacement of passive by active detection - Shift to infrasonic signals - Development of non-acoustic detection - Current phase based on artificial intelligence, expert systems, neural networks, transputers using "acquired" knowledge VII. Information Warfare ? "Information Struggle" obliterates boundary - Constant informational/EW confrontation - Struggle to control computer networks - Danger of "information strikes" ? Military Deception/"Reflexive Control" - Political, diplomatic, technological, purely military factors - "Immobilize and strike" - Surprise on tactical, operational, even strategic levels ? 700 special operations by Green Berets VIII. Information Warfare ? "Most important objective may be affecting enemy's psychology" - Individual, collective, mass - Direct or indirect - Destroy institutions, create mass disorder, etc. - Need knowledge of political system, decision-making processes, etc. ? 20 million leaflets ? Mass media IW ? "Psychological weapons": psychotronic, psychotropic, infrasonic, electromagnetic I. Electronic Warfare ? Struggle against C2, PGMs - Dialectical antipode of C2 on all levels - Struggle for "supremacy in ether" - Individual, group, zonal ("meta-systems") - "Basic content of warfare" - "Basic factor in victory" - Gulf War: EW = "determining influence" on MNF combat actions II. Electronic Warfare ? Most effective EW means = guided missiles with passive radar heads - Autonomous guidance - Absence of EM energy emission - Small resolution, high speed - All-weather, stand-off - 500-1,000 missiles daily to neutralize AD systems in initial period ? EWW = evolution of EW into primary combat operation I. Robotics ? Spheres of application - Identify, monitor environment - Transport operations - Manipulation operations - Service various assemblies, units I. Counters Against "Information Systems" ? Against RSTA - Advanced anti-radar missiles - Advanced anti-radar drones ? Against command and control - "Perturbations of environment" - System failures (non-lethal weapons) - Nuclear weapons and PGMs ? Computer virus - Impersonal, undeclared, "hidden" war - Equivalent to nuclear use II. Counters Against EW Systems ? Active - Affect software (e.g., computer virus) - Strike with beam, SHF, especially EMP and microwave weapons ? Passive: electronic protection and maskirovka III. Role of C3I/EW ? Past = arms race / Present = C2 systems race ? Past = nuclear confrontation / Present = information, psychological confrontation ? "Information control" as important as arms control ? Computers based on atoms surpass nuclear weapons by orders of magnitude I. Space Systems _ Information warfare - 70% of all military information - Increase combat potential by 3-4 times _ ABM _ ASAT _ New emphasis on space-to-earth strikes _ Space = new TVD - 1992 Military Space Forces - All spacecraft controlled from Russia II. Space Systems _ Orbital systems = "globalization" of warfare ? New "space echelon" - Orbital groupings (satellites in orbit) - Ground-based infrastructure (control, guidance, info processing) ? Small satellites = decentralized use in air, combined-arms operations I. Reconnaissance-Strike Systems ? RUKS = nucleus of future war - RSTA systems - Deep-strike systems - Advanced C3 systems ? Lethality, independence of weapons = new role for intel ? Advanced C3 loses meaning if intel lags behind: automated mode requires cybernetics, artificial intelligence II. Reconnaissance-Strike Systems ? Most important trend = horizontal integration of intel assets ? Reduced financial, time outlays for system development ? Unified intel, EW, fire control centers = "electronic-fire" concept ? "Combat system against combat system" = intellect, organization, observability, manageability, covertness, combat capabilities, combat stability III. Reconnaissance - Strike Systems ? First Stage (-2000) - Areas / axes - Deep, successive - Selective-limited, area-point, fire denial/barrier - Area, selective, target interdiction - Centralized C2 ? Second Stage (2000-2010) - Single-function RUKs, one type target - Emergence of unified complexes (MLRS) - Shift from successive to simultaneous - Selective-limited, shift to area - Greater role of area, selective - Shift to decentralized C2 IV. Reconnaissance - Strike Systems ? Third Stage (2010-2020) - Shift to multi-function RUKs - Automated control system = RUS - Deep, simultaneous - Area, selective - Fully decentralized C2 ? RUS - Unite entire complex of recon, strike assets - Expand missions - Recon = 70-80% of targets - Operational cycle = 3-5 min. ? Center of gravity = information warfare II. New Operational Concepts ? Past = strikes by combined-arms units ? Present = PGMs, then large units ? Past = consecutive fire destruction ? Present = simultaneous fire destruction - Electronic - "New physical principles" - "Selective pressure": non-lethal weapons - "Isolating": remote-control minelaying - Psychological weapons ? Shift = evolutionary as PGM arsenal grows IV. New Operational Concepts ? New strategy, art, tactics of IW ? "Informational Paralysis" = troop/weapon C2, AD/EW, vital elements of recon, strike, remote-control mining ? Electronic-fire engagement/strike, electronic strike against military C2 - "Blind" = disrupt recon flows to C2 - "Deafen" = EW against info networks - "Demoralize" = saturate info networks with disinfo - "Decapitate" = destroy C3I ? Objectives = strike, hidden control over info resources/protect info against conventional, nuclear, NPP, electronic, software attacks XII. New Operational Concepts ? "Electronic-Fire Operation" - New type of military action - Surprise first strike - Massive missile, air-space, naval, electronic strikes for fire superiority - "Informational paralysis" - Several days or weeks - Outcome of war decided without invasion by ground forces XIII. New Operational Concepts Offensive Air-Space Operation (360o) ? 10-12 days against retaliatory means, military- economic targets, C2 - 700 cruise missiles for 300 state, military targets - 3,000-3,500 cruise missiles for 500-600 military-economic targets - 2,000-4,000 cruise missiles for energy sector ? 20-50 days against military forces and military- economic potential: 50,000-70,000 cruise missiles, RPVs, NPPs ? Collapse of political system XIV. New Operational Concepts Offensive Air-Space Operation ? Sequence of operations - EW ops = electronic jamming along entire perimeter - Naval/ground strikes on AD/C2 in flight corridors, other sectors - CMs on key fixed targets with dense AD - Decoy ops by air, naval, ground forces ? Sequence of targets - Long-range CMs on low-frequency radars - SLCMs on power, C3I, AD - Stealth against fortified CPs, C2 - New-generation PGMs (outside AD range) on SAM launchers, strategic targets XVI. New Operational Concepts ? Reconnaissance-Strike Operation = counter to offensive air-space operation - AD, air, electronic, fire, air-assault battles - Individual deep, massed, concentrated electronic/ fire strikes, remote-control minelaying - Systematic ops by RFCs, RSCs - Unified concept for fire superiority - Main difference = EW/fire merge into single process: "fire-and-forget" XVII. New Operational Concepts ? Targets - Nuclear weapons/stockpiles, PGMs/control centers - Troop/weapon C2, recon, EW systems - AD, air force, field arty systems - Ground groupings, operational/immediate rear ? Degree of fire destruction (math expectations) - Reduction in combat potential - Magnitude of irrecoverable losses - Number of reliably damaged targets XVIII. New Operational Concepts ? Chechnya mistakes - Impact of weather on PGMs - Poor intel/recon - Faulty target selection (housing areas, outskirts vs. state/military C2, commo hubs, key elements of infrastructure, presidential palace) - EW units = insufficient for "informational vacuum" XIX. New Operational Concepts ? Military Education - Military science = theory of land, naval, air, space wars - Military computer science = info, linguistic, math support - Military cybernetics = operations research theory, game theory, math simulation models ? Curricula (basic and applied) - Air-space = aviation/space technologies, systems - Military-technical problems = scientific R&D in non-traditional weapons - Stability/conversion problems = strategic arms, science-intensive technologies, modeling/ simulation V. New Organizations ? Information Warfare - State Duma Committee on Commo/Info Science - Directorate of Informatization/Automation of Armed Forces (subunit of GS/CINC of Signal Commo) - International Info Technology Academy ? "Conceptual Framework for Dissemination of Info Technology in Armed Forces" ? "Concept for Development of Commo Systems to 2000" - Integrated, automated, jam-resistant, territorial-zonal network for all branches - Basis = automated mobile/fixed radio centers VI. New Organizations ? Unify fragmented info-mgt system of branches into unified MOD system - Centralization along vertical C2 line - Decentralization within zones of responsibility ? Create MOD C2 system that interacts with state ? Create air-space recon system based on all military/ state assets - Integrated system by regions/axes according to threats/targets - Integrated air/space assets to support all levels VII. New Organizations ? New EW/IW Troops - Missile-attack warning, space monitoring, SIGINT systems - Information-strike assets - Infusion of ECM, ECCM assets - Directorate for C2 of EW/IW assets ? New information operations (blockades, strikes, etc.)= new art of info assets ? Training on all levels VIII. New Organizations ? Main TVD = air-space ? Strategic Strike Forces - PGMs, NPPs - "Strategic Non-nuclear Forces" - "Offensive Air-space Operation" ? Strategic Defense Forces - Air, missile, space defense - "Repelling Offensive Air-space Operation" ? C2 system identical for both ? "EW/IW Troops" III. Military-Technical Policy ? State Committee for Military-Technical Policy ? Security Council Commission for Scientific-Technical Issues of Defense Industry ? Military-Technical Policy Council ? New presidential program (dual-purpose) = emphasis on radioelectronics ? "National Technological Base Program" = reallocate funds ? Shift from material-intensive to science-intensive ? Need development of non-lethal impact weapons, "functional destructive means" (EMP against PGMs) IV. Military-Technical Policy ? "National Technological Base Program" - Info, new materials technologies - Microelectronics, nanoelectronics - Optical, laser, radioelectronics - Power generation, energy savings - Advanced engines - Highly productive industrial equipment - Special chemicals - Energy-intensive materials - Unique nuclear, environmentally safe technologies - Biotechnologies V. Military-Technical Policy ? Key Weapons Improvements - Merger of fire/support models into multi-functional RUKs - Greater range, precision, effectiveness - Saturation with PGMs, especially carriers - Power generation, energy savings - Improved ground-, air-, space-based info systems - All-weather recon, aiming systems - Combat systems with artintel elements - Weapons based on new physical principles VI. Military-Technical Policy ? Long-time civil-military consensus = "Informatics Age" ? Russia with weapons acquisition program for 1993-2000 ? Priorities (MOD and Yel'tsin) - Strategic nuclear weapons - C3I (especially space-based) and EW - Russian mobile forces VII. Military-Technical Policy ? 1993 Military Doctrine - R&D Priorities = "Highly efficient C3I, EW, precision non-nuclear weapons" - Russia must create new generations of arms "ahead of competitors" - Russia must maintain "mass mobilization capability" - Priority must go to military in allocation of financial, other resources VIII. Military - Technical Policy ? Still producing "world-level weapons" ? Balance between 21st-century and modernization ? "Information warfare" = 30-35% increase (vs. 20-25% in 1993) ? Criterion = "time-cost-effective" II. Military Industries _ VPK = economic rebirth of Russia - Only complex with world standards - Various sensors of ionizing radiation, dosimetric monitoring systems, systems for registration of high- speed processes, radioelectronic instruments, semi-conductor laser beams, scientific research equipment - Basic and applied science in high-energy physics, thermonuclear synthesis, super-strong magnetic fields, superconductivity V. Military Industries ? Changing cycle between research and series production -"Scientific-technical reserve" in "critical technologies" (new stage) -Equivalent to "hovering" ? Grachev: "prototype plans for all arms" ? Kokoshin: mass production "when we are a little richer" VI. Military Industries ? Resurrection of "closed cities" ? Edicts on privatization, "stabilization" of VPK ? Movement from centralized to contract system = not "small steps" but "leaps" in key characteristics, prototypes ? New MOD finance commission ? "Off-budgetary" budget ? Preservation of co-production with CIS ? "Technical Supersystems" I. Military R&D ? R&D = 10% of defense budget ? R&D = 15% of state order for defense ? Reexerting central control over R&D = key trend for short, medium terms ? "Moving away from blanket research into constantly updating weapons prototypes" ? "Scientific-technical reserve" = "Technological Deterrence" (Dual-Purpose) I. Application of Theory ? "Norms" / Measures of Effectiveness ? Modeling, simulation, wargaming ? Training / Exercises ? Professional Army ? Exports ? Programs I. Conclusions ? RMA -New strategy of war = IW -Next MTR/Next RMA -Continuous stand-off/"liberation" ? PGMs/"New Physical Principles" ? Future War -"Space-Age" -High-tech surprise by "supersystems" -Contest for info/electronic-fire dominance -Selective suppression/destruction -Initial period = culmination II. Conclusions ? "Info/Computer War" = 4th RMA -New role of info/psychological weapons -New role of surprise/offense -New "indirect approach"/strategy -New correlation of forces -New "weapon of mass destruction" ? IW = exponential increase in combat potential / vulnerability III. Conclusions ? New operations: "Supersystems" = jointness -Strategic/info paralysis by "air-space attack" -2020 reconnaissance-strike operation: EW/fire = single "fire/forget" ? New Organizations: 2 branches with single C2, EW/IW forces ? New Military-Technical Policy: "technological deterrence" = shift from material - to science-intensive -Space-based C3I/EW = "supersystems" -"Time-cost-effectiveness" FUTURE RESEARCH ? New books, etc. ? Emerging new military doctrine? ? Future questions -Definition/application of "psychological weapons" -Definition of "joint operations" -Critical target sets (e.g., "strategic paralysis") -Effects of micro-miniaturization ? Impact of elections on future of RMA 44